Session 6 Measuring and Forecasting Market Demand

Time required: 2 hours
Objectives & Requirements
　　Understand
　　•  various types of market demand
　　•  methods of estimating current market demand
　　•  methods of forecasting future market demand
Essential Concepts
　　•  market potential
　　•  primary demand vs. selective demand
　　•  chain ratio method
　　•  market buildup method
　　•  market factor index method
　　•  methods of surveying buyers’ intentions
　　•  leading indicators
Text Chapter and Supplementary Materials
　　Appendix 1，Kotler & Armstrong, Principles of Marketing 9th ed.
　　References at in the Course Syllabus
Exercises and Discussion
　　1. Look at your school’s schedule of classes for the coming semester. Examine the course offerings in your major area and try to predict which courses will have low, medium, and high demand. What factors do you think affect demand for courses? If a new course were offered, what information would you want to know in order to predict the level of demand for it?
　　2. 假设江苏省的个人可支配收入 ( yi )占全国的0.4239%; 该省的零售额 ( ri )占全国的0.5167%; 该省的人口( pi )是全国人口的0.5618%。这三类数据的权重分别为0.5, 0.2, 0.3。假设每年全国羊毛衫销售潜量是1200亿元，去年雪莲牌羊毛衫在江苏省的总销售额是3260万元，占全国市场的份额约为3%。请计算江苏省地区购买力指数，并回答雪莲牌羊毛衫在江苏省所占的市场份额是否高于其全国市场份额。
Case Analysis:
　　“Genentech: Forecasting Euphoria”，Principles of Marketing 6th ed.

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